Gasoline futures - 14 August 2023

Analysis & Learning Aug 14, 2023

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology  

Gasoline futures - in 20 week cycle peak zone.

20 week cycle peak zone.
The next 20 week cycle trough is due in the first week of September and before that happens of course, we need the cycle to peak.  So we know that within the next few weeks this will happen.  It is feasible that the 20 week cycle has in fact already peaked (the last spike up at the end of July), but the sharp up-penetration of the 20 day FLD last week suggests that there is a little more play in the advance. Thus, upside is limited and we should be looking to fade the rally and then take a trade back down to at least the up-sloping 80 day VTL at 265.  Price will likely track lower than this, potentially to 250.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.