You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology Note: we have abbreviated the text in response to your feedback (since our subscriber base has expanded dramatically, more non-Hurst specialists have come on and feedback has favored the abbreviated text).
ASML (semiconductor sector proxy) 9 year cycle peak in? Bear regime starts? Rotate Down. Monthly chart: looking for the last major peak - that of the 40 week cycle - and then potentially broadly down for 12 months.
- The analysis points to the big top in summer 2021 being a 9 year cycle peak in this monthly chart.
- The first sharp down-leg was price crashing into an 18 month cycle trough.
- The recent run up has been the rising 18 month cycle, the last in the 54 month cycle that kicked off in 2019 (and note this is the last - of two - 54 month cycles in the 9 year cycle).
- The next 9 year cycle nest of lows (which contains the current 54 month and the 18 month troughs as well) is not due until April 2024. We believe this marks a regime shift to secular bear.
- We are currently stalking the first 40 week cycle peak and expect a decline to below 500 around May (roughly to the 18 month VTL and 40 week FLD). We will update as price unfolds.