ASML Holding - 21 February 2023

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology  Note: we have abbreviated the text in response to your feedback (since our subscriber base has expanded dramatically, more non-Hurst specialists have come on and feedback has favored the abbreviated text).

ASML (semiconductor sector proxy) 9 year cycle peak in?  Bear regime starts? Rotate Down.  Monthly chart: looking for the last major peak - that of the 40 week cycle - and then potentially broadly down for 12 months.

1. The analysis points to the big top in summer 2021 being a 9 year cycle peak in this monthly chart.
2. The first sharp down-leg was price crashing into an 18 month cycle trough.
3. The recent run up has been the rising 18 month cycle, the last in the 54 month cycle that kicked off in 2019 (and note this is the last -  of two - 54 month cycles in the 9 year cycle).
4. The next 9 year cycle nest of lows (which contains the current 54 month and the 18 month troughs as well) is not due until April 2024. We believe this marks a regime shift to secular bear.
5. We are currently stalking the first 40 week cycle peak and expect a decline to below 500 around May (roughly to the 18 month VTL and 40 week FLD).  We will update as price unfolds.

Daily chart:  the 20 week cycle looks to have topped.