Natural Gas futures update - 3 May 2023
Natural Gas futures long term - 18 month cycle trough not due until end of summer now - so more downside expected.
Longer term downtrend is still running
In the last note (14 March 2023) the phasing analysis pointed to the end February price low as that of the 18 month cycle trough. However, the force of the preceding downtrend looks to have pushed the trough forward in time (trough right translation) and the estimate for the next 18 month cycle trough is now the end of August. This would be 19.5 months since the last 18 month cycle trough in January 2021, but we expect wavelength to stretch in a heavy downtrend).
Since the last 18 month cycle trough we had a major peak (last August) and the down cross of the 18 month cycle VTL makes it a 54 month cycle peak. This is the longest cycle we look at and has a lot of power. It's why the downtrend has been so strong.
So for the long term view suffice it to say that we likely have months more broad downside to come and the down-cross of the 18 month cycle FLD back in January actually targets below 1. It does not mean it goes this far but that's something to bear in mind. So let's say we are looking back down to the summer of 2020 54 month cycle low of 1.43.