Macro Outlook - 21 October 2024
You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.
US Dollar - 40 day cycle peak zone in place?
The 40 day cycle peak we were looking for just below 104 in last Monday's note looks to have come in now. An FLD cascade pattern has developed below price and we are looking for a clean down break of the 10 day FLD to confirm the 40 day cycle peak. This should project price down through first the 20 day FLD and then the 40 day FLD. At the moment we are not looking for much more than a test of the 102 handle from around the end of October and into early November for the next 40 day cycle trough. Also, we are expecting decent uplift out of the next trough because the underlying long trend component is up (the end September low is being phased as at least an 18 month cycle trough).
