Macro Outlook - 23 December 2024

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

Last Wednesday's hawkish FOMC triggered a bout of high market volatility and seemed to disrupt some of the views from last Monday's macro outlook. We held off on an intra-week update to see how the cycles reasserted themselves through the noise. And in fact, there was not as much change as it seemed.