Macro Outlook - 28 October 2024
You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.
US Dollar - still in a 40 day cycle peak zone?
In last week's note we were looking for a peak in the 40 day cycle to be confirmed by a down-cross in the 10 and 20 day FLDs and then a rather sharp retrace into the 40 day cycle trough. However, the 10 day FLD held and we have had another minor push higher. The outer range of the the 40 day cycle trough whisker is around 8 November, after the US election, so we are still expecting a peak around now and in fact upside momentum has slowed somewhat since the end of July, which we would expect to see if a peak was forming. Further, we struggle to accept that the minor low last week was the 40 day cycle trough.
