SOX Index - 20 February 2025

Macro Outlook Feb 20, 2025

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

SOX - counter-trend rally into proximate 40 day cycle peak zone.

The Semiconductor Index has taken off out of an 80 day cycle low, but we remain bearish on the sector. At the end of March we are due a 40 week cycle nest of lows. The last 40 week cycle trough was August 2024 and we are now 28 weeks along it (out of an average wavelength of nearly 40 weeks, i.e 70% along).

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.