Silver futures - 24 September 2024
You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.
Silver futures - expecting a pop up into the next 80 day cycle peak.
Driving the current broader upswing is a new 40 week cycle which began in the first week of August and is still only 46 days along: its status therefore is strong up, which implies late peaks (right translated), swift uptrends and shallow downswings of shorter cycles.
We cleared a 40 day cycle trough on 10 September, the first in the current 80 day cycle (which itself is the first of the new 40 week cycle) and are expecting the cycle to peak from the end of the month into early October. The 80 day cycle nest of lows is clustered around mid next month, so the peak should occur before then.
The 20 day FLD was penetrated to the upside on 12 September and theoretically projected price to around 30. As you can see with price now at 31.2 there has been an overshoot to the upside, which signals underlying strength. We expect price to settle in a straddled, consolidative 20 day cycle trough this week and then push higher, potentially even to 34 into the projected 80 day cycle peak. We then expect a decline back down through the 40 day VTL around 30 and then an uptrend resumption. The trigger level for the top being in place will be a downward penetration of the steeply up-sloping 10 day VTL.
