Sample note: Nikkei Long view - 26 October 2022.

Sample Notes Oct 26, 2022

Link to guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology: FLD, VTL, Translation, Diamonds, Circles/Whiskers...

54 month and potentially 9 year cycles both falling with next trough expected August 2023 circa 23,000 -> secular downtrend still underway.

Monthly data going back to April 2014, which is likely where the current 9 year cycle began.  The 54 month cycle as well as potentially the 9 year cycle topped in February 2021. Both cycles' status is down and the next trough is not expected until next August circa 23,000.  The broad price path is therefore down.  The synthetic composite cycle line projects the anticipated trajectory.  Note: one would have expected the 54 month cycle to have troughed mid-chart in March 2020.  However, the cycles analysis places the trough in December 2018.  The big dip is a fundamental price shock (Covid), which temporarily threw the cycles out of kilter.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.