The Macro Brief - 10 November 2025

Analysis & Learning Nov 10, 2025

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting EURUSD and Bitcoin.

General outlook: US Dollar Small Down (->20D trough). Gold Up (80D trough). Oil Up (20D trough). Copper Up (80D trough). USDJPY Up (->80D peak). EURUSD Bounce? (80D trough). SPX E-minis Bounce (40D trough). Nikkei Bounce (40D trough). Bitcoin Bounce (80D trough). 10Y Notes Bounce (40D trough).

EURUSD - 80 day cycle trough zone. Bounce.

Price has landed at the 80 day cycle trough zone we were looking for in previous notes, but at this stage we are not sure how far the move carries.

Bitcoin - 80 day cycle trough in place? Bounce.

Converging with equity risk, Bitcoin may have just passed through an 80 day cycle trough. But because the last 80 day cycle trough was higher, we are viewing the current move as counter-trend.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.