The Macro Brief - 12 January 2026

Analysis & Learning Jan 12, 2026

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting the US Dollar and Gold.

General outlook: US Dollar Down (->20D trough). Gold Up (->40D peak). Oil Up (->40D peak). Copper Up (80D trough). USDJPY Up (40D trough). EURUSD Up (80D trough). SPX E-minis Down (20D peak). Nikkei Up (->20D peak). Bitcoin Down (80D trough). Ten Year Notes Down (->40D trough).

US Dollar - 20 day cycle peak in place. Looking for next 20 day cycle trough. Down.

The first 20 day cycle peak in the new 80 day cycle looks to be in. Looking for counter-trend drop to 20 day cycle trough.

Gold -heading towards next 40 day cycle peak zone. Up.

Gold is heading towards its next 40 day cycle peak.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.