The Macro Brief - 12 October 2026
You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.
The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting the US Dollar and Oil.
General outlook: US Dollar Up (20D trough). Oil SmallDown (-> 80D trough).
US Dollar - 20 day cycle trough in place. Up.
We have downgraded the 40 day cycle peak to a 10 (or 20) day cycle peak. A shallow 20 day cycle trough may have just formed and the 20 week cycle is still driving higher. The next inflection should be the 40 day cycle peak, but higher.
Oil (WTI) - another short leg lower to the 80 day cycle trough. Down.
The view of last week stands: the 80 day cycle trough is likely still somewhat ahead of us, the 40 day VTL should be penetrated to the downside. It is worth keeping an eye oil here, because we could see a sharp reaction shortly.
