The Macro Brief - 13 July 2026

Analysis & Learning Jul 13, 2026

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting the US Dollar and Bitcoin.

General outlook: US Dollar SmallDown (->80D trough). Bitcoin Up (-> 20D peak).

US Dollar - close to an 80 day cycle trough. SmallDown.

DXY is closing in on the next 80 day cycle trough. Price has just been rejected at the 20day VTL, which likely marks the last 20 day cycle peak. Expecting minor pullback to the 40 day VTL and then further price expansion.

Bitcoin – looking for the next 20 day cycle trough. SmallDown.

The new 20 week cycle upswing is broadly driving price higher. We are looking for a soft pullback into the next 20 day cycle trough.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.