The Macro Brief - 16 December 2025

Analysis & Learning Dec 16, 2025

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting the US Dollar and the S&P 500 (ES e-minis).

General outlook: US Dollar Up (80D trough). Gold Down (80D peak). Oil Down (->40D trough). Copper Down (40D peak). USDJPY Up (80D trough). EURUSD Up (->40D peak). SPX E-minis Down (40D peak). Nikkei Down (->40D trough). 10 Year Up ( 80D trough). Bitcoin Up (40D trough).

US Dollar - approaching an 80 day cycle trough. Up.

An 80 day cycle trough is still at hand and we are expecting an upside reversal shortly.

S&P 500 E– Minis (ES) - 40 day cycle peak zone. Down.

We look to be passing through a 40 day cycle peak zone with the next trough due early January.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.