The Macro Brief - 16 March 2026

Analysis & Learning Mar 16, 2026

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting the S&P 500 and Bitcoin.

General outlook: US Dollar Up (->40D peak). Gold down (->40D trough). Oil Up (->40D peak). Copper Down (->80D trough). USDJPY Up (->20D peak). EURUSD Down (->20D trough). SPX E-minis Down (-> 80D trough). Nikkei Down (-> 80D trough). Bitcoin Up (-> 40D peak). Ten Year Notes SmallDown (->20D trough).

S&P 500 E–Minis (ES) - approaching the 80 day cycle trough zone. Down.

Price is entering the 80 day cycle trough time zone, which is due this or next week. Be aware however that a 20 week cycle has peaked and will be driving things lower, which suggests a counter-trend bounce when the 80 day cycle trough kicks in

Bitcoin - heading towards the next 40 day cycle peak. Up.

Although the 40 day cycle trough is not very clear, we look to have passed through it and should continue higher with the new 18 month cycle upswing serving as a tailwind.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.