The Macro Brief - 17 February 2026

Sample Notes Feb 17, 2026

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting the US Dollar and Gold.

General outlook: US Dollar Up (20D trough). Gold Down (->20D trough). Oil Down (->20D trough). Copper Down (->20D trough). EURUSD Down (->40D trough). SPX E-minis Down (-> 20D trough). Nikkei Down (->80D trough). Bitcoin Down (20D trough). Ten Year Notes Up (->40D peak).

US Dollar - reversed out of pro-trend 20 day cycle trough. Up.

DXY has just passed through a 20 day cycle trough after a recent 20 week cycle trough. The next target is the 40 day cycle peak.

Gold - heading towards the next 20 day cycle trough. Down.

The rally out of the spike low in early February (the 20 week cycle trough) has faltered and price looks to be drifting down to the next 20 day cycle trough.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.