The Macro Brief - 18 November 2025

Analysis & Learning Nov 18, 2025

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting GOLD and the S&P 500.

General outlook: US Dollar Up (20D trough). Gold SmallUp (20D trough). Oil SmallUp (->40D trough). Copper Down (->20D trough). USDJPY Down (80D peak). EURUSD Down (->20D trough). SPX E-minis Down/Reverse (->80D trough). Nikkei Down/Reverse (->80D trough). Bitcoin Down/Reverse (->80D trough). 10Y Notes Down (->80D trough).

Gold - Looking for counter/trend 20 day cycle trough. Small Up.

The new 80 day cycle upswing has collapsed, which is bearish. Price is in the vicinity of a 20 day cycle trough, but we are expecting a weak rally out of it and then more downside.

S&P 500 E– Minis (ES) - Stalking 80 day cycle trough. Down/Reverse.

Price is falling into an 80 day cycle trough zone, which is close in terms of time. Waiting for confirmation.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.