The Macro Brief - 2 February 2026

Analysis & Learning Feb 2, 2026

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting Gold and the S&P 500.

General outlook: US Dollar Up (20W trough). Gold SmallUp to Down(20D trough). Oil Down (->40D trough). Copper Up (80D trough). EURUSD Up (->40D peak). SPX E-minis SmallDown (-> 20D trough). Nikkei Down (-> 20D trough). Bitcoin Down (-80D trough). Ten Year Notes Up (->40D peak).

Gold - 20 week cycle trough still ahead of us. Small Up to Down.

Gold has flash crashed into the 80 day VTL and the range of the 20 day cycle trough. We expect a minor bounce but the major trough of the 20 week cycle still lies just lower around mid month.

S&P 500 E– Minis (ES) - looking for next 20 day cycle trough. Small Down.

We believe the most recent low may have been as much as a 20 week cycle trough. This however could have already peaked, which is bearish. We need confirmation. The next target is the 20 day cycle trough which is at hand.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.