The Macro Brief - 20 July 2026

Analysis & Learning Jul 20, 2026

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting Oil and the S&P 500.

General outlook: Oil Up (->20D peak). SPX E-minis Down (-> 40D trough).

Oil (WTI) - still looking for the next 20 day cycle peak. Up.

The 80 day cycle upswing is still driving prices and we are looking for a rest at the next 20 day cycle peak.

S&P 500 E–Minis (ES) - heading towards the next 40 day cycle trough. Down.

The 40 day cycle trough is due now and price will likely need to fall hard to catch up with the cycle.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.