The Macro Brief - 20 October 2025

Analysis & Learning Oct 20, 2025

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting the US Dollar and Bitcoin.

General outlook: US Dollar Rest/Up (40D trough). Gold Rest/Up (80D trough). Oil Down/Reverse (80D trough). Copper Down (80D trough). USDJPY Up (40D trough). EURUSD Up/Down (20D peak). S&P500 Up (40D trough). Nikkei Up (20D trough). Bitcoin Up (40D trough). Treasuries Down (40D peak).

US Dollar - looking for shallow 40 day cycle trough. Rest/Up.

The 18 month cycle cycle is rising and the first 40 day cycle just peaked. We are looking for a shallowish dip into the 40 day cycle trough and then up again.

Bitcoin - 40 day cycle rising. Up.

The 40 day cycle looks to have just bottomed and we are looking higher towards a 40 day cycle peak zone but be advised this has the markings of a counter-trend run (it started below the last 20 week cycle trough).

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.