The Macro Brief - 22 December 2025

Analysis & Learning Dec 22, 2025

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting the S&P 500 (ES e-minis) and Bitcoin.

General outlook: US Dollar Up (80D trough). Gold Down (->80D peak). Oil Up (80D trough). Copper Down (80D peak). USDJPY Up (80D trough). EURUSD Up (80D peak). SPX E-minis Down (40D peak). Nikkei Down (80D peak). Bitcoin Up (40D trough).

S&P 500 E– Minis (ES) - 40 day cycle peak zone. Down.

We look to be passing through a 40 day cycle peak zone with the next trough due early January.

Bitcoin- pro-trend 40 day cycle trough in place? Up.

The 40 day cycle trough looks to be in place and we are looking for the next 20 day cycle peak.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.