The Macro Brief- 23 February 2026
You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.
The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting the S&P 500 and Bitcoin.
General outlook: US Dollar Down (->40D trough). Gold Up (->80D peak). Oil Up (->80D peak). Copper Up (->40D peak). USDJPY Down (->20 day trough). EURUSD Down (->40D trough). SPX E-minis Down (-> 40D trough). Nikkei Down (->80D trough). Bitcoin (20D trough). Ten Year Notes Up (->40D peak).
S&P 500 E– Minis (ES) - looking for a 40 day cycle trough. Down.
Even though a major trough looks to have just passed, the analysis suggests that we need to work lower for the next 40 day cycle trough. This would mean the 20 week VTL breaks and that the 20 week cycle peak becomes the 40 week cycle peak.
Bitcoin - in 20 day cycle trough zone? Flat.
This analysis points to the recent big low as being an 18 month cycle trough. This is a big call and these big trough placements can shift forward, so be careful. For now we are taking a conservative view and looking for the next 20 day cycle trough only, which could be here.
