The Macro Brief - 24 November 2025

Analysis & Learning Nov 24, 2025

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting EURUSD and Bitcoin.

General outlook: US Dollar SmallDown (->80D peak). Gold Up (80D trough). Oil SmallDown (->80D trough). Copper Down (->20D trough). USDJPY SmallDown (->80D trough). EURUSD Down (->20D trough). SPX E-minis SmallDown (->40D trough). Nikkei SmallDown (->80D trough). Bitcoin Up (80D trough).

EURUSD - looking for the next 20 day cycle trough. Small Down.

We are looking for a 20 day cycle trough and then a counter-trend bounce.

Bitcoin - the 80 day cycle trough may be in place. Up.

Price has tested an 80 day cycle trough and we are expecting a counter-trend bounce.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.