The Macro Brief - 26 August 2025
You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.
The Macro Brief is a new feature we are introducing to bring value to our Hurst Cycle community—a brief excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are looking at the S&P 500 (ES futures).
General outlook: The US Dollar, USDJPY and Oil look to be rounding a 40 day cycle trough zone and Gold a 20 day. EURUSD looks to have just stalled at a 40 day cycle peak. We think that the Nikkei and S&P500 have peaked at 80 day cycle magnitude along with Bitcoin. We also believe that 10 year treasuries are heading towards the next 80 day cycle trough.
S&P500 E– Minis (ES) - 80 day peak zone.
There are multiple different analyses for the E-Minis at the moment, but the one we favour is that price is struggling in an 80 day cycle peak. A down-cross of the 40 day VTL at around 6,400 and change confirms.
