The Macro Brief - 26 January 2026
You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.
The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting Gold and Bitcoin.
General outlook: US Dollar Down (->40D trough). Gold SmallUp (->40D peak). Oil Up (->80D trough). Copper Up (->80D peak). USDJPY Up (40D trough). EURUSD Up (->40D peak). SPX E-minis Down (-> 80D trough). Bitcoin Up (80D trough). Ten Year Notes Up (->40D peak).
Gold - looking for mild 40 day cycle peak. Small Up.
Gold is probing a 40 day cycle peak zone, but we do not expect this to result in a full throated pullback. Rather, the wave structure suggests a straggly sideways move (wave 4 of 5 in Elliott terms) and then another push higher. There is too much parabolic power to ask for a steep retracement. What we are looking for afterwards is a push towards the 20 week cycle peak, the next trough being due in early March. That pullback is likely to be meaningful.
Bitcoin - 80 day cycle trough zone. Up.
Price has overshot to the downside and the 40 day VTL cross confirms that the 80 day cycle peak is in place (mid January). Price is closing in on an 80 day cycle trough, which is pro-trend because the new 18 month cycle is still rising.
