The Macro Brief - 30 March 2026

Analysis & Learning Mar 30, 2026

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting Oil and the S&P 500.

General outlook: US Dollar Down (->80D trough). Gold up (40D trough). Oil Down (80D peak). Copper Up (40D trough). USDJPY Down (-> 80D trough). EURUSD Up 20D trough). SPX E-minis Up (80D trough). Nikkei Up (80D trough). Bitcoin Up (20D trough). Ten Year Notes Up (80D trough).

Oil (WTI) - 80 day cycle peak zone. Down.

The trough phasing analysis has been applied a different way this week, because we think it gives a more coherent picture. Although this analysis points to the 80 day cycle having just bottomed, the composite cycle line suggests that price is now in a peak zone. The next target would be the 40 day cycle trough, due in mid April.

S&P 500 E–Minis (ES) - testing the 80 day cycle trough zone. Up.

We had another false start on the 80 day cycle trough, but despite geo-political noise are squarely in the time range of the trough now. Expecting an advance shortly.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.