The Macro Brief - 5 January 2026

Analysis & Learning Jan 5, 2026

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting the EURUSD and Bitcoin.

General outlook: US Dollar Up (->20D peak). Gold Up (80D trough). Oil Down (->40D trough). Copper Up (-> 20D peak). USDJPY Down (->40D trough). EURUSD Down (->80D trough). SPX E-minis Up (40D trough). Nikkei Up (->40D peak). Bitcoin Up (80D peak).

EURUSD - heading towards the next 80 day cycle trough zone. Down.

The Euro is heading down into the next 80 day cycle trough zone due around mid January.

Bitcoin - heading up towards 80 day cycle peak. Up.

The 40 day cycle trough looks to be in place and we are looking for the next 80 day cycle peak.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.