The Macro Brief - 5 October 2026

Analysis & Learning Oct 5, 2026

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting the S&P 500 and Bitcoin.

General outlook: SPX E-minis Up (20D trough). Bitcoin Up (20D trough).

S&P 500 E–Minis (ES) - 20 day cycle trough in. Up.

The phasing analysis now puts the mid September low as a 20 week cycle trough. The cycle upswing is young and we look to have just passed through the first 20 day cycle trough.

Bitcoin – 20 day cycle trough. Up.

The underlying trend is up, the first 20 day cycle trough in the new 80 day cycle is in place. Preferred view is further upside.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.