The Macro Brief - 8 December 2025

Analysis & Learning Dec 8, 2025

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting the S&P 500 e-minis and an interesting possibility in Bitcoin.

General outlook: US Dollar Up (80D trough). Gold SmallDown (->20D trough). Oil Down (40D peak). Copper SmallUp (->80D peak). USDJPY Up (80D trough). EURUSD Down (40D peak). SPX E-minis Up (->40D peak). Nikkei Up (->40D peak). 10 Year notes Down (-> 80D trough). Bitcoin Up (-> 40D peak).

S&P 500 E– Minis (ES) - heading towards the next 40 day cycle peak. Up.

A 40 day cycle peak is due circa 7,000 by month end.

Bitcoin - heading towards the next 40 day cycle peak. Up.

Price is still emerging out of what could be an 18 month cycle trough. We are looking for the next 40 day cycle peak circa 100,000 by month end.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.