US Large Caps in Focus - Index level and Oil complex - (10 March 2026)
Notes: we tend to focus on inflections on the weekly data level to strip out noise and, hopefully, call trades of more meaningful longevity. The basic system is a dynamic heatmap and colours: Up as Blue and Down as Red. Momentum is woven into the price series, such that paler colours represent lessening of power and stronger colours, increasing power. The sub-window shows the heatmap with momentum numbers at each timeframe from hourly to monthly.
US Equity Index Futures (ES, NQ, HWI, RTY) Flurry or constructive?
With the market still so volatile, we are holding off specific stocks for now. 240 minute timeframe. Oversold set up from higher red range of 56 to 62 (which isn't that dramatic in the circumstances) at 22 GMT 8 March - to set up drop at 0800 (where we saw grey reds) to low blues 1200 yesterday. So far NQ has hit blue 36 and ES blue 35, notice HWI1 (Indu) at 20 is laggard. Overall this blue set isn't anything more than the one we saw 4-5 March. Notice also a horizontal reversal line projection at 6,850. I would want to see that cleared to the upside and blue mom numbers powering across all TFs to have more confidence that this was anything more than a news driven flurry.
SPX E-Minis daily chart.
Key trend support line and potential support range broken down properly 6 March. Slammed down yesterday with Oil spike and regained so far this 24H session. Price still below prior trend support line around 6,860, which we naturally see as potential resistance here. We need to see constructive price action above that level to have more confidence.
Oil complex - Overbought next steps.
The overbought set up yesterday kicked in and price retreated. However basis daily price here, NY Harbour (HOA) the most overbought at blue 70, remains grey blue and everything else's lower timeframes are very benign pale reds so far. Typically, but not always of course, we expect very high power overboughts to rest and try to return up for a second go. Right now, this heatmap is not screaming a lot more downside to follow, the opposite in fact.
