Bitcoin update - 10 September 2024
You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.
Bitcoin - first upside trigger cleared, building confirmation for long cycle trough.
As mentioned in Monday's note, we are looking for confirmation of a trough. Price has just penetrated up through the down-sloping 10 day VTL and has so far held its ground. The implication therefore is that the 7 September low is at least a 20 day cycle trough. The average wavelength for the 20 day cycle in the data here is 14.2 days, which is more or less precisely the time back to the last 20 day cycle trough and almost half of the time back to the last 40 day cycle low, which is an obvious trough.
If the 20 day cycle has bottomed then so too must have the 40 day cycle. Since we also know that the 80 day cycle was due at that time as well, we can assume this longer cycle has bottomed too and is now rising. It could be a 20 week cycle trough as well, but this is less clear so we can ignore for now, and in any case an 80 day cycle having bottomed carries the same message - a good upside reversal.
Price is currently testing the 10 day FLD and a median cross above this gives an upside projection of 61,570. This means that the 40 day FLD should also be cleared to the upside, which would generate a projection of 66,300.
