S&P500 E-minis update - 4 September 2024
You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.
S&P 500 Futures - failed to hit upside target and broke down. Tracking into 40 day cycle trough.
In Monday's macro note, we were looking for a little push higher into the next 20 day cycle peak. However, data out of the US yesterday triggered a break and we peaked early and suddenly. Because price has now dropped below the 20 day FLD we believe it likely that the 20 day cycle trough has formed - either on 22 August as shown above, or on 29 August. This raises the likelihood that the trough on 5 August is of greater than 80 day magnitude, most likely 40 week. Price is now falling into a 40 day cycle trough, marked by the blue box and because we are in a new 40 week cycle upswing, the analysis is that a recovery will commence once the 40 day cycle low is in, the outer date range of which is around 15 September.
