US Dollar vs. South African Rand (USDZAR) update - 30 October 2024

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

USDZAR - the 40 day cycle has peaked just shy of original target.

Updating the call we made on 17 October. A quick reminder of why we look at this emerging markets pair: the South African Rand (ZAR) is sensitive to industrial metals prices, which in turn makes it a China and a global growth play. Other things equal and simply put, if ZAR strengthens, then the industrial metals market is robust; if it falls then the reverse is true.