Macro Outlook

Our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter is posted every Monday morning (or the first trading day after). Updates are posted during the week as market action unfolds.

186 recent posts in this collection

Macro Outlook - 4 November 2024

Into the US Presidential election tomorrow and we expect volatility, which could temporarily disrupt analysis conclusions. Eyes are on equity risk in particular and we look at the cyclic inflections in S&P 500 futures. Also of note is the turn that looks to be taking place in the US Dollar. ...

6 months ago • 4 min read

CBOE VIX Index - 1 November 2024

The monthly log chart here is regular and shows stable rhythm, although the last 54 month cycle period was lengthened. The VIX shows the expected volatility of the S&P500 Index (SPX), when VIX rises SPX gets more volatile and moves (either up or down). The analysis shows ... ...

6 months ago • 1 min read

S&P 500 futures update - 1 November 2024

The 80 day cycle has peaked and we are projecting down to around 5,600 - 5,650 for the next 80 day cycle trough from next week onwards, centering around 11 November ...

6 months ago • 1 min read

Macro Outlook - 28 October 2024

In last week's note we were looking for a peak in the 40 day cycle to be confirmed by a down-cross in the 10 and 20 day FLDs and then a rather sharp retrace into the 40 day cycle trough ... ...

7 months ago • 6 min read

EURUSD update - 25 October 2024

Price is starting to move and is testing the 10 day VTL right now. If this is cleared to the upside, then we know that the 20 day cycle trough is in place ... ...

7 months ago • 1 min read

WTI Oil update - 22 October 2024

In Monday's macro outlook we were looking for a 40 day cycle trough potentially around the 20 day VTL and imminently. If we don't get a failure intraday ... ...

7 months ago • 1 min read

Macro Outlook - 21 October 2024

Our Monday update on macro instruments, including BTC: we are looking for the next minor inflection to be the 20 day cycle peak due by month end and above 70,000 ...

7 months ago • 5 min read

Bitcoin long range - 16 October 2024

In this update we show the broader context, which among other things has that recent trough as an 18 month cycle ...

7 months ago • 2 min read

Macro Outlook - 14 October 2024

Macro Outlook - 14 October 2024 ...

7 months ago • 5 min read

Macro Outlook - 7 October 2024

Macro Outlook - 7 October 2024 ...

7 months ago • 6 min read