The Macro Brief - 1 December 2025

Analysis & Learning Dec 1, 2025

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting the US Dollar and S&P 500 e-minis.

General outlook: US Dollar SmallDown (->20D trough). Gold Up (80D trough). Oil SmallUp (80D trough). Copper Up (->40D peak). USDJPY Up (80D trough). EURUSD SmallUp (->40D peak). SPX E-minis Up (->20D peak). Nikkei Up (->40D peak). 10 Year notes Down (-> 80D trough).

US Dollar - nearing 20 day cycle trough. Small down to Up.

The underlying trend is up, but the 80 day cycle peak is now in place. We are looking for a 20 day cycle trough zone, potentially this week, and then another push higher to the next 20 day cycle peak.

S&P 500 E– Minis (ES) - stalking a 20 day cycle peak. Up.

An 80 day cycle upswing is underway and we are looking for the next 20 day cycle peak.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.