The Macro Brief - 15 September 2025

Analysis & Learning Sep 15, 2025

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting two instruments which show commonality in their 20-week cycle troughs.

General outlook: US Dollar and USDJPY being pulled lower by coming 80 day cycle trough. Gold up. Oil bottoming? Copper soft then push again. EURUSD pushing to 80 day cycle peak. SPX, Nikkei, Bitcoin all take off in new 20 week cycle upswing. Ten year notes: 80 day cycle peak in.

S&P500 E– Minis (ES) - new 20 week cycle rising. Up.

E minis have taken off with a new 20 week cycle. Up.

Bitcoin - new 20 week cycle rising. Up.

Bitcoin has taken off with a new 20 week cycle. Up.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.