The Macro Brief - 2 March 2026

Analysis & Learning Mar 2, 2026

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting the US Dollar and EURUSD.

General outlook: US Dollar Up (->20D peak). Gold up (->20D peak). Oil Up (->80D trough). Copper Up (->40D peak). EURUSD Down (->40D trough). USDJPY Up>Down (-> 40D peak). SPX E-minis Down (-> 40D trough). Ten Year Notes Up (->40D peak).

US Dollar -heading towards next 20 day cycle peak. Up.

DXY has just passed through what we now see as a 40 day cycle trough after a recent 20 week cycle trough. The next target is the 20 day cycle peak.

EURUSD - 40 day cycle trough still beckons. Down.

The next anticipated inflection is the 40 day cycle trough.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.