The Macro Brief - 22 September 2025
You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.
The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting the US Dollar and S&P 500 e-minis.
General outlook: US Dollar and USDJPY bouncing out of 80 day cycle troughs. Gold up. Oil struggling to confirm 80 day trough. Copper and EURUSD dropping to 80 day troughs. SPX, Nikkei, Bitcoin all formed 20 day troughs in new 20 week cycle. Ten year notes looking for 80 day cycle trough.
US Dollar - probable 80 day cycle trough. Up.
The 80 day cycle trough has probably formed. Confirmation will be provided by a price cross above the 20 day FLD and 40 day VTL. Up.
S&P500 E– Minis (ES) - subtle 20 day trough in new 20 week cycle. Up.
The S&P 500 e-minis continue their march upward in the new 20 week cycle. A subtle 20 day cycle trough formed last week, bullish pressure revealed by the fact price could not reach down to the 20 day FLD. There is a 40 day cycle trough looming in the second week of October. Up.
