The Macro Brief - 23 March 2026

Analysis & Learning Mar 23, 2026

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting the US Dollar and Gold.

General outlook: US Dollar SmallUp (->20D peak). Gold down (->40D trough). Oil Up (->40D peak). Copper Down (->40D trough). USDJPY Down (->20D trough). EURUSD Down (->20D trough). SPX E-minis SmallDown (-> 80D trough). Nikkei SmallDown (-> 80D trough). Ten Year Notes SmallDown (-> 80D trough).

US Dollar - heading towards final 20 day cycle peak in the 80 day cycle. SmallUp.

DXY looks to be creeping higher away from the last 20 day cycle trough in the current 80 day cycle. This cycle is due, we believe, a shallow trough in the first week of April. Once the final 20 day cycle peak is in place, this or next week, we should see a mild refresh.

Gold - still heading towards next 40 day cycle trough. Down.

Gold is still falling towards its next 40 day cycle trough, due around month end.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.