The Macro Brief - 29 September 2025
You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.
The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting the US Dollar and Oil.
General outlook: US Dollar and USDJPY moving into 20 day cycle troughs. Gold still up. Oil down into 40 day trough. Copper and EURUSD possible early 80 day troughs. SPX and Nikkei 40 day troughs next. Bitcoin formed early 40 day trough. Ten year notes need confirmation of 80 day cycle trough.
US Dollar - first 20 day cycle trough in new 20 week cycle.
The 80 day cycle trough has been confirmed by the cross above both the 20 day FLD and 40 day VTL, and upgraded by harmonicity to a 20 week cycle trough. Price should find support at the level of the 20 day FLD this week as it forms the 20 day cycle trough. Small down then back up.
Oil (WTI) - 40 day peak likely in place. Down.
The 20 day cycle trough formed as expected, with support at the 20 day FLD. The 40 day cycle peak is likely in place, price starting down to the 40 day cycle trough in mid October. Down.
