The Macro Brief - 6 July 2026
You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.
The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting Euro v US Dollar and the S&P 500.
General outlook: EURUSD SmallUp (80D trough). SPX E-minis Up (-> 40D peak).
EURUSD - a counter-trend 80 day cycle trough may have formed. Up.
An 80 day cycle trough may have formed, but because this trough is below the 40 week cycle trough one back in March, it is counter-trend. We expect a failure at or just above the 20 day VTL circa 1.15.
S&P 500 E–Minis (ES) - heading towards the next 40 day cycle peak. Up.
The 20 day cycle trough looks to have formed with the early June 80 day cycle upswing acting as a tailwind. We are looking for a move up into the next 40 day cycle peak.
