The Macro Brief - 6 October 2025
You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.
The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting the US Dollar and SP 500 e-minis.
General outlook: USD major new cycle and JPY breakout. Gold pushing, but nearing 80D peak. Copper nearing 40D peak. EUR and 10 years failed 80D cycles? SPX e-minis and Nikkei still pushing higher.
US Dollar - a major new cycle may have started. Up.

The phasing analysis points to the the mid-September low being an 18 month cycle trough, which implies meaningful upside.
S&P500 E– Minis (ES) - still running higher. Up.

The S&P 500 e-minis is still running up and the composite cycle points to 7,000.