The Macro Brief - 6 October 2025

Analysis & Learning Oct 6, 2025

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting the US Dollar and SP 500 e-minis.

General outlook: USD major new cycle and JPY breakout. Gold pushing, but nearing 80D peak. Copper nearing 40D peak. EUR and 10 years failed 80D cycles? SPX e-minis and Nikkei still pushing higher.

US Dollar - a major new cycle may have started. Up.

The phasing analysis points to the the mid-September low being an 18 month cycle trough, which implies meaningful upside.

S&P500 E– Minis (ES) - still running higher. Up.

The S&P 500 e-minis is still running up and the composite cycle points to 7,000.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.