The Macro Brief - 9 February 2026

Sample Notes Feb 9, 2026

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.

The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting the US Dollar and Bitcoin.

General outlook: US Dollar Down (20D trough). Gold Up? (20W trough). Oil Down (->20D trough). Copper Down (->80D trough). USDJPY Down (20D peak). EURUSD Up (20D trough). SPX E-minis Down (-> 80D trough). Nikkei Down (80D peak). Bitcoin Up (80D trough). Ten Year Notes SmallDown (->20D trough).

US Dollar - dropping into a pro-trend 20 day cycle trough. Down.

We believe that DXY is in at least a new 80 day cycle upswing. We likely just passed through a 20 day cycle peak and are now looking for the 20 day cycle trough.

Bitcoin - 80 day cycle trough in place? Up.

It is possible that the 80 day cycle trough is now in place. We need the 10 day and 20 day FLDs to cross up to confirm. This by the way is at variance with equity index futures outlook.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.