US Sectors - 10 March 2023

US Sectors Mar 10, 2023

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology  Note: we have abbreviated the text in response to your feedback (since our subscriber base has expanded dramatically, more non-Hurst specialists have come on and feedback has favored the abbreviated text).

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Financials SPDR (XLF) -  a new 20 week cycle downswing is leaning on price.  Fast down continuation expected with time and price target estimates on deck.

  1. A 20 week cycle peaked in early February and the downswing of this cycle is the current tailwind. Technically the 20 week cycle trough is due in the third week of this month.
  2. An 80 day FLD cross (not shown on chart) projected down to 34.5 but this was blown through in the session before last.  The 20 week FLD has just started being crossed down and we are assuming it will fully cross giving a downside projection to at least 30.7.
  3. Because the 20 week trough zone is not far away in terms of time, we anticipate a continued fast move down as price tries to catch up to cycle time.

Financials SPDR Relative (XLF | SPY) -  a 40 week cycle downswing has hit its fast phase. More downside into the 80 day trough, then a weak bounce.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.