Dollar Index - 19 October 2022

Oct 19, 2022

Dollar Index

Looking down for the next 80 day cycle low

The current 80 day cycle as well as the 20 week cycle both likely topped on 29 September.  Their status is therefore down and the next trough for both cycles of is due in the last week of October.  It is likely that the 18 month cycle troughed in June and, if so, this cycle is still rising and implies that the broad underlying trend is up. Therefore, once the current cycles of interest bottom, we expect an uptrend re-join. Both the 40 day VTL (valid trendline) and 80 day FLD (forward line of demarcation) have been plotted - see guidance notes. A penetration of the darker blue upsloping VTL line around 111.5 confirms the 80 day cycle peak and the lighter blue FLD should serve as support nearer the time circa 109.  The red arrows show a potential price path.

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.