Sample note: Ethereum - 13 October 2022

Oct 13, 2022

Link to guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology: FLD, VTL, Translation, Diamonds, Circles/Whiskers...

Ethereum is in a longer term downtrend and is being driven lower by the falling 20 week cycle which is not due to trough until mid-November. With that said, we are due a countertrend rally in the 40 day cycle  to above 1,500. Thereafter the expectation is for a rollover and down again.

Analysis:  the 40 day cycle bottomed at the end of September, but has been in a low volatility range every since.  Low vol is a lead indicator for high vol and the 40 day cycle is not driving price lower. Price is well supported here and so the working hypothesis is that a head of steam is building for a sharp rally probably above 1,500.  However, the longer trend is down (the 20 week cycle is falling) and so the expected rally will very likely be countertrend and fail.  

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.