Junk (High Yield) Bond ETF - 15 March 2023
You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology
High Yield Bond - Looking for a 14%+ decline over next 12 months.
- This note just focuses on the longer term outlook, there will obviously be lesser cyclic fluctuations en route.
- Monthly chart long term. Super clean and rhythmic 54 month "business cycle". Last peak end 2021, next trough March 2024.
- The 54 month cycle is 36 months along and the average length of the cycle is 50 months in the data set. Its phase therefore is 72% (36/50) which means the cycle's status is Down.
- The 54 month peak came in in November 2021 after 20 months, so the peak came in at 40% of the full wavelength. This is a tad early (or left translated) and is more bearish overall.
- The February 2023 peak may well be that of the last 18 month cycle (there are three in a 54 month cycle). If that was indeed the peak it came in very early.
- The 54 month FLD was crossed down by price last September at roughly 89. The downside projection therefore is 77, pretty much at the 54 month VTL.