Bitcoin in the zone, 80 day cycle peak forming?

Analysis & Learning Jan 13, 2023

Link to guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology: FLD, VTL, Translation, Diamonds, Circles/Whiskers etc.  Peak and trough zones are colour coded according to cycle magnitude in Hurst's nominal model.  

We focus on a specific set of cycles in the notes, by wavelength:  Long, 54 month and 18 month; Intermediate: 40 week, 20 week and 80 day; Short, 40 day and 20 day.  The longer the cycle, the more significant the peak or trough and theoretically the stronger the move into and out of it.  

The last comment on Bitcoin was that the end November low was that of a large magnitude cycle (the 54 month), which points to a new secular uptrend. This is a big call, so still in babysteps mode and ready to accept that the 54M trough is still ahead of us. But for now, the first subdivisions up have been appropriately punchy. Some fancy Hurst analysis now that suggests a lower magnitude top out (80 day cycle peak) is about to start.

  1. 20 week cycle FLD has just been challenged by price - this is just a 20W cycle replica displaced forward in time, but when price interacts with the line we listen.. at this point in the cycle it should be serving as a barrier.
  2. 5,10 and 20 day cycle FLDs stacking parallel to price - these forward offset cycle replicas should act to suck price down into them in this cascade pattern.
  3. 80 day cycle trough due first week of February. Main trend is up, but this one should be down and countertrend. (Ps expect a bounce along the way, the component 20 day cycle should bottom mid Jan), but basically down to early Feb is the call.
  4. Channel "support" at time of 80D trough (this is just standard TA not Hurst) and 20 week FLD could act as support. Because the underlying trend is up, expect rally off the 80D trough.
  5. DXY (US Dollar) in 20 week cycle trough zone YTD Bitcoin | DXY correlation -87% (ceteris parabus dollar up bitcoin down)

Christopher Grafton CMT

Chris has been involved in the markets for 20 years. He is the author of Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis and is an experienced working technician. Chris holds the CMT qualification.